Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
